Methodology

Fair odds start from Pinnacle. Pinnacle’s price still includes a small margin, so the implied probabilities on the market are scaled until they sum to 100%. That scaled probability is turned back into a decimal price. That price is the fair odds.

The edge is the gap between those fair odds and the price we can actually take. A tip is drafted from that gap, then approved before it is published. There is no public submit form. If the price is not worth a stake, it does not go out.

The advised stake is 1 to 10 units, sized from the edge. A larger edge takes a larger stake. The cap is 10 units. We do not publish a stake above that.

The imported archive had no stake on the file. Those tips are counted at 1 unit. Stakes are not written back onto old rows to make the history look more precise than it was.

After full time the tip is marked won, lost, void, or push, with the score when we have it. A settled row is not changed into a different result.

• Win: profit is stake × (odds − 1).
• Loss: profit is minus the stake.
• Void or push: profit is zero.
• No odds on the file: the tip stays in the list and stays out of the units and the ROI.

If a stake was stored, that stake is the one in the sum. If it was not, the stake is 1 unit. ROI is profit divided by units staked on priced tips. Win rate is wins divided by wins and losses, including decided tips that had no odds.

World Cup 2026 outrights are a closed archive. Where the public result is clear, the row says lost. Where the source had no result, the row is archived and the outcome is not invented. Outrights are not in the match-tip units.