Norway vs Sweden

Reasoning

With Erling Haaland rested and Martin Ødegaard unavailable after the Champions League final, Jørgen Strand Larsen is set to lead Norway's attack on home soil at Ullevaal. This gives the Celta Vigo striker a golden opportunity to be the main man upfront against a Sweden side that often struggles defensively in big away games. Norway have looked far less potent without their two biggest stars in recent friendlies (losses and draws), but Strand Larsen has been in solid club form and is now fully fit. He thrives with more space and responsibility — something he's likely to get plenty of here as the focal point in attack. Sweden qualified for the World Cup dramatically, but they've had a long break since their playoff success and will be missing Viktor Gyökeres. This should leave gaps in their defence that a hungry Strand Larsen can exploit. At 2.30, backing him to find the net feels like excellent value.